Philippines vs Uzbekistan
FIFA 2018 World Cup Qualifier
8 pm kickoff, Tuesday, September 8
Philippine Sports Stadium
LIVE Coverage on ABS-CBN Sports+Action
This game is massive on so many levels. The Azkals have won their first two games but still sit behind North Korea in Group H of AFC's World Cup qualifying after the Koreans won 1-0 in Bahrain last Thursday. A win puts us back on level terms with them on points. If we draw, we are still in second place in the group at 7 points while the Uzbeks will be third with 4 points. A loss and Uzbekistan is level with us at 6 points. Only the group winner is sure to advance to the next round-robin phase, while the four best second-placers from the eight AFC groups also book passage to the last twelve.
So if we cannot finish first in this tight group, a second-place finish with plenty of goals will be nice. The Azkals need to pile up on points, since a nightmarish October road trip looms: October 8 in Pyongyang and Bahrain in Riffa, Bahrain five days later.
We want to be level with DPR Korea going into the showdown in Pyongyang. A win on Tuesday gives us a 6-point cushion against Uzbekistan, and almost, ALMOST, turns Group H into a two-horse race as early as now. (Bahrain and Yemen, who have both lost all of their assignments, hold up the table.)
A win confirms our status as a contender. A draw keeps us in decent shape. A loss would not be helpful at all.
Dooley has some interesting starting lineup decisions to make. The coach began the Maldives friendly with a back three of Daisuke Sato, Amani Aguinaldo, and Jerry Lucena. But under little pressure from the visitors, that defense was revised several times in the game.
(READ: Azkals – Maldives postgame : A workmanlike win)
Since there are only three in the back instead of the usual four, the game may very well be won or lost in how Dooley fills up his formation diagram in front of the keeper, who presumably will still be Neil Etherdige. Roland Müller is in the lineup but Etheridge has done nothing to lose his spot between the pipes.
I will be somewhat surprised if Aguinaldo is given the start at central centerback. (In a sense, Dooley's 343 formation employs 3 centerbacks.) I suspect that Dooley did not start Juani Guirado there to hide him for Tuesday and also to give Aguinaldo more international exposure. (Juani was originally on the start list then was removed just minutes before kickoff. Guirado looked perfectly okay after the game so I don't think it's an injury.)
I suspect that Dooley will put either Lucena or Guirado in the center. Although Dooley has trusted Aguinaldo in the pivot of the defense before in big games, (in last year's Challenge Cup and Suzuki Cups,) Uzbekistan is a different class of team and maybe he wants to go with experience over youth.
Juani turned 36 last month and Lucena is 35. Is it right to put two martial-law babies in a World Cup qualifying match of this importance? We may have no choice. The injury to Simone Rota hurts us here. Rota, a few years younger, has the size and experience to fill in at central defense but is nursing cracked ribs. Rob Gier is recovering from knee surgery.
Luke Woodland is also an option. The new Filipino-English Azkal only planed in on Sunday from New York, where he reportedly trialled with MLS side Red Bull New York. Is it wise to bring in a jet-lagged Woodland back at CB, (he played at that spot against Yemen) in such a pressure-cooker game, with, at most, one or two training sessions with the squad? Woodland is also naturally a holding, or defensive midfielder. Remember, Luke is also currently out-of-contract so his match sharpness could be a tad bit wanting.
The other big decision: where to place Stephan Schrock. The left side of the 343 looks set, with Stephan Palla playing behind Iain Ramsay. Does Schrock push out Reichelt at the right forward slot (as he did last Thursday, when Reichelt played at center forward), or pip Misagh Bahadoran at right wing? Remember, Javier Patiño is almost certainly going to be deployed up top.
Or does Dooley really throw us a curve and plant Stephan at right back? That would be a stretch. Although Schrock has played as a wingback for both club and country, one thinks that his talents will be better utilized further upfield, especially with just three true defenders in the formation. But then, this is Thomas Dooley, whose starting formations are notoriously hard to predict.
There's another call: where does Bahadoran go? At right wing or on the bench to start the game? Misagh has accounted for two of our goals already in the campaign. But with so many shiny new toys in Dooley's playpen, Misagh might have to content himself with the impact sub role.
Neither Manny Ott nor Martin Steuble played last Thursday and one wonders if they will get a run-out on Tuesday. Perhaps Dooley was hiding them as well, to trot them out in Tuesday? What is for sure is that with the national team so bristling with weapons, there will be some seriously bad-ass players in bibs on Tuesday not getting playing time.
So here is how I think we line up versus Uzbekistan, barring any injuries or sickness.
Ramsay Patino Reichelt
Palla Ingreso PYH Schrock
Sato Guirado Lucena
Etheridge
If Woodland is tested in defense and Schrock is placed in a forward slot, this is how Dooley might go.
Ramsay Patino Schrock
Palla Ingreso PYH Steuble
Sato Woodland Lucena
Etheridge
And this is one left-field study.
Ramsay Patino Schrock
Palla Woodland PYH Bahadoran
Sato Aguinaldo Daniels
Etheridge
But formations are only a small part of the tactical story. The keys to the match will be 1), how the Azkals control possession in the midfield, and 2), how an aging defense (assuming the veterans get the nod to start), hold up against an Uzbek attack.
Oh, and there's a 3). Phil Younghusband needs to get his scoring boots on. He has yet to score an international goal this year.
Uzbekistan are tough but vulnerable. The Central Asian side's talisman is Server Djeparov. The 32-year old Korean league veteran is a striker with a dangerous left foot. Djeparov won the Asian Football Confederation player of the year plum in 2008 and 2011. This is a sample of his work.
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Djeparov, as his first name suggests, is also a creative force with his passing, and useful on dead ball situations.
The man who has found the back of the net for Uzbekistan 23 times was subbed out in last Thursday night's somewhat uninspiring 1-0 win against Yemen in Tashkent after 46 minutes. (The only goal was a terrific free kick strike from Alexander Geynrikh.) Was Djeparov's sub because of injury? If so, will he be well enough to play? We will have a better idea on Tuesday.
Uzbekistan lost their opening match in Pyongyang last June, 4-2 to Korea DPR. The Koreans led 4-0 at the half before two second-half goals took some gloss off the scoreline for the home team.
So they have three points from two games and yet could be groping for confidence. The fact that Uzbekistan could be weary from the traveling after the home game against Yemen, and you just might have a recipe for an upset against the Azkals. And yes, it would be an upset. Uzbekistan are ranked 76th in the world, 49 slots ahead of the Philippines. They defeated North Korea and Saudi Arabia enroute to an elite eight slot in the the Asian Cup earlier this year, falling to eventual finalists Korea Republic.
Another challenge for Uzbekistan: they, like Maldives, are also learning to play under a new coach. After the 4-2 loss to North Korea their coach Mirjalol Qosimov resigned and Samvel Babayan, champion coach of Uzbek club Pakhtakor, took over.
So can we do it? I think there is a great chance to shock this Uzbek team. Tuesday can't come fast enough. – Rappler.com
Follow Bob on Twitter @PassionateFanPH.