MANILA, Philippines - Like the Philippines, Japan stumbled in its opening FIBA Asia assignment, though Japan’s loss was a way tougher assignment as it was against defending champion, Iran, 86-48. Then the Japanese handily defeated their next two foes, Malaysia and India, to advance to the next round where it will face the Philippines once more in the same setting.
Both teams now find themselves in the second round bunched in Group E alongside Iran, India, Hong Kong and Palestine.
Background
The Philippines has a 9-12 record against Japan in FIBA Asia play. However, the sun has set on Japan as a regional basketball power. They last tasted gold in 1971 and their best finish since that year was in 1997 when they placed second. Their winning record against the Philippines notwithstanding, the Filipinos have taken the last 3 match-ups, winning by an average of 11.6 points.
This is a younger Japanese team the Philippines will be facing. In fact, their average age is 28 years old versus the 31 years of the Filipinos. Unlike before when they had the naturalized JR Sakuragi to man their middle, the slot is now patrolled by Joji Takeuchi who is getting better. But if the match against Iran is a gauge for the Filipinos field a similar faster, taller, deeper and talented, and physical lineup, Takeuchi is in for a long day.
(READ: Gilas Pilipinas second round FIBA Asia schedule)
The Japanese gave the Philippines a good battle in the first half. But when JR Sakuragi lost focus in the second half, Japan crumbled, as they took in their most lopsided loss to the Filipinos since that 97-63 loss in 1960.
There are few veterans of the 2013 FIBA Asia squad that made the trek to the Manila. Aside from Takeuchi who gave a good account of himself in that second round match that ended in a 90-71 loss, the other holdovers from that tourney are point guard Makoto Heijima (11.3 ppg and 4.0apg), center Ota Atsuya (2.7 ppg and 3.7 rpg), shooting guards Keiko Matsui (12.0 ppg) and Daiki Tanaka (5.0ppg).
Matching up against the Philippines
Looking at Japan’s match against Iran is perhaps a better gauge of looking at the match up against the Philippines as the players are just as fast, just as tall, and an Asian power.
Japan will have their hands full as Japan’s frontline isn’t as deep. Ota Atsuya has been underwhelming at center and has left Takeuchi to his own devices. Unlike in 2013 where for a half Sakuragi was interested in playing instead of whining towards the officials and teammates, Takeuchi thrived with the double teams his teammate attracted. Now he will be the focus of the Filipinos’ defense.
While Japan’s focus is hosting the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo where they are looking to their youngsters in Yuta Watanabe, Yuki Togashi and Rui Hachimura to lead them back to glory, this doesn’t mean that this FIBA Asia is meaningless. The Japanese envision a return to glory however long and difficult the process, more so with the ascension of the West Asian countries like Iran, Jordan, and Lebanon.
If they want to give the Filipinos a good match, Japan head coach Kenji Hasegawa will need Heijima, Atsuya, Matsui, and Tanaka to have big games. They still pretty much play the same way — post, kick out. What Japan needs is to attack the basket. They need forwards Ryumo Ono (7.0ppg) and Kenta Hirose (5.3ppg) to pick up their game and provide some firepower and drive from the wing. They don’t have anyone like the Philippines’ Jayson Castro, Calvin Abueva, or Terrence Romeo who can create their own shots or create for others. That is what Japan hopes to replicate.
The Filipinos are an inch taller on the average - 6-foot-5 to 6-foot-4 - but other than height, statistically, they have a slight edge against the Japanese in the tale of the tape.
Points
Philippines 94.7
Japan 83.3
Rebounds
Philippines 55.7
Japan 41.7
Assists
Philippines 12.7
Japan 15.3
FG% (two points)
Philippines 49%
Japan 52%
FG% (three points)
Philippines 38%
Japan 38%
FT%
Philippines 65%
Japan 65%
How the Philippines will play Japan
They will likely play single coverage on Takeuchi with Andray Blatche or even Marc Pingris on him initially. Then head coach Tab Baldwin will ask his defenders to smother Japan's outside shooters. Takeuchi can even have his points but if he isn’t supported by the others, this could end in another rout. The Japanese know what’s coming with the Philippines’ pressure defense and the dribble drive offense. Let’s see if they learned anything from 2013.
– Rappler.com