MANILA, Philippines – It feels odd that the NBA regular season is already close to an end. On April 14, to be specific, which is 21 days away.
But with that sad news comes even better news: the NBA playoffs are near. I don’t know about you, but for a hoop junkie like me, the first day of the postseason has always been more exciting than Christmas.
Do you like opening gifts under a tree? I prefer staying up until the wee hours of the morning and catching the best basketball players in the world, thank you very much.
Back to a serious note: The conference finals and NBA Finals will obviously be the big spectacles, and the conference semis is when the titans of each conference finally square off, which is usually when the best drama unfolds.
But the first round is quite exciting as well. With all due respect to the NCAA Final Four tournament, the first round of the NBA Playoffs may actually have more madness. Sure, there will be a series where a team sweeps or gets a gentleman’s sweep (wins in 5 games instead of 4), but those 7 and 6-game series will be gold.
Anyone remember how in 2014, 6 of the 8 first round series went all the way to Game 7s? Only one series was a sweep. The other one? Well, Damian Lillard did this:
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With that in mind, I asked myself: which first-round series would make for the best television this year? I thought it through for a few days, and came to these choices.
Before we begin, here’s the current playoff picture:
East:
1. Cleveland (51-20) vs. 8. Detroit (38-34)
2. Toronto (48-22) vs. 7. Indiana (37-33)
3. Atlanta (42-30) vs. 6. Charlotte (41-30)
4. Boston (42-30) vs. 5. Miami (41-30)
In the hunt: Chicago (36-34), Washington (35-36)
West:
1. Golden State (64-7) vs. 8. Utah (35-36)
2. San Antonio (60-11) vs. 7. Dallas (35-36)
3. Oklahoma City (49-22) vs. 6. Portland (37-35)
4. LA Clippers (43-27) vs. 5. Memphis (41-31)
In the hunt: Houston (35-37)
Few more notes:
I anticipate Blake Griffin will return in time for the first round. He still has to serve a 4-game suspension once he’s medically cleared, which I assume will be sooner than later.
Chris Bosh’s chances of returning are still unclear. He says he’s optimistic, but many folks covering the Heat are skeptical. Miami’s still been solid without its top scorer, so I’m judging the team’s spot here on both whether Bosh does come back in time or not.
It was announced 10 days ago that Grizzlies guard Mike Conley will be out 3-4 weeks due to an achilles injury. Judging on that time frame, it looks like he’ll return in time for the first round.
I also believe DeMarre Carroll will return by the playoffs, same with Jae Crowder.
These aren’t predictions. These are just the matchups I think would be great.
Let’s get started:
East:
1. Cleveland vs. 8. Indiana
Each of the 3 times the Cavaliers and Pacers have faced this season, it’s been close. In fact, two games were decided only by 4 points while the other was a 5-point final disparity. Now, the defending Eastern Conference champions won each game, but this much is clear: Indiana is a bad matchup for Cleveland. The latter still likely wins the series, but it won’t be an easy cruise.
Paul George plays the same position as LeBron James and for years has given the 4-time MVP troubles on the defensive end, dating back to his days with Miami. While this Indiana team is different from the ones LeBron faced thrice with the Heat, it still has holdovers from those rosters who have playoff experience.
George, George Hill, and Ian Mahimni are no strangers to postseason basketball in Indy, and Monta Ellis has seen his share of playoff battles as well. In my opinion, the Pacers are also better than their record shows, simply because they’ve lost quite an amount of close games this season. A few lucky bounces here and there, and the team could actually be competing for home court in the first round right now.
That’s actually an indictment on Indiana, since you need to know how to win close games to advance in the playoffs. But this much is clear: the Pacers can hang with any team in the East, the Cavaliers included, which would make it a fun series.
Also: did I mention Paul George vs. LeBron, part 4? James leads 3-0, by the way.
2. Toronto vs. 7. Chicago
Did you know the Bulls have won 9 straight against the Raptors? Did you know Toronto had home court advantage in the first round of each of the last two playoffs, and was eliminated both times anyway? Did you know Chicago’s record doesn’t really show how good they are, since injuries to Jimmy Butler, Pau Gasol, Derrick Rose (I know), and Nikola Mirotic have robbed them of a chance at a better seed?
Scared yet, Canada?
To be fair: this Raptors team, which currently owns the fifth best record in the NBA, is much better than the last two seasons. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry are having outstanding seasons, and their supporting cast has improved. Also: Carroll’s return gives the team the chance to play small with him at the 4, making an already cerebral offense even more lethal.
But there’s something about the Bulls that makes me feel they will give Toronto fits. Sure, it’s not the same defensive-oriented team under former head coach Tom Thibodeau, but there’s just so much talent playoff experience in that roster. Also, Chicago has played Toronto so well, plus Butler can be used as a shutdown option on either DeRozan or Lowry.
Regardless of the outcome, this is clear: it’s going to be one hell of a series.
3. Charlotte vs. 6. Atlanta
A series between the Hornets and Hawks has the sneaky potential to go 7 games. Both teams are solid offensively, stout defensively, and have big-shot makers. Sure, the games will likely be on NBA TV more than ESPN or TNT, but I would closely follow each contest.
Al Horford and Paul Millsap vs. Al Jefferson and Marvin Williams is going to be a fun frontcourt face off, because each guy delivers something unique to the table. Who can hit more big shots between Nic Batum and Kyle Korver? Could Jeff Teague match Kemba Walker’s big-shot making?
I’d want Charlotte to have home court advantage because, selfishly, if it does go to a Game 7, I prefer the Hornets’ home floor. And also because how do you not enjoy Hugo the Hornet, wearing his Jordans?
4. Boston vs. 5. Miami
Any playoff series featuring the teams from 3-6 in the East right now would be very interesting, so the specific pairs don’t matter as much as the others.
Why would I prefer Miami and Boston to face off? Simply due to the history. Both teams had quite the rivalry from 2010-2013, and that was mainly thanks to the presence of LeBron, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen (who switched teams), Kevin Garnett, and company.
Maybe a new series, with new faces representing each team, could start a new rivalry between both sides. It’s always more fun when there’s animosity between the Heat and Celtics.
This series likely comes down to which coach will do a better job: Brad Stevens or Erik Spoelstra. Both are terrific basketball minds. For hoops purists, the Xs and Os will be entertaining to track, along with how Hassan Whiteside deals with the high tempers of the playoffs.
West:
1. Golden State vs. Utah
The chances are the Warriors demolish whomever poor soul they face first in the postseason. But from all the options available, the Jazz present the most viable challenge.
Utah plays at a slower tempo and still utilizes a traditional, two-big frontcourt who stay mostly in the paint. How Golden State tries to match up with that when it plays Draymond Green at the 5 will be an interesting watch. Can the Warriors’ speed overcome the girth and towering presence of Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert?
Look, again, it’s simple: Golden State is too good, and it will find a way to easily dispatch Utah, which still doesn’t have a reliable point guard. But from all the options available in the lower seeds of the Western Conference, the Jazz might be the best choice to steal one game.
2. San Antonio vs. Portland
I know what you’re thinking: it’s the LaMarcus Aldridge factor. Well, here’s the truth: like Golden State, San Antonio is going to dismantle its first opposition come playoff time, so why not choose a series that has some extra drama to it from the get-go?
Portland is surprisingly doing well without Aldridge, thanks in large part to the fantastic play of both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, plus the exemplary coaching of Terry Stotts.
Over the past few months, there have been reports that the rise of Lillard’s popularity while Aldridge was Portland’s franchise player played a role in his departure. So, taking that into account, as well as everything he’s done for the Trail Blazers, how are the fans going to receive him in a postseason series?
The Spurs likely sweep, but Lillard will surely have that game or two where he hits everything he attempts. Remember when he dropped 51 on the Warriors? Will it be enough for Portland to steal one game against San Antonio? Maybe.
3. Oklahoma City vs. Houston
There are a whole lot of reasons why this would be a great series, so let’s list it down:
History - both teams squared off in the 2013 playoffs, with OKC advancing in 6.
In that same series, Oklahoma City lost Russell Westbrook to a knee injury after a collision with pesky Rockets guard Patrick Beverley, who, by the way, still plays most of the point guard spot for Houston. You think Westbrook or the Thunder have forgotten how Beverley cost them a chance to make the finals a second year?
Star power: Westbrook, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Dwight Howard. Name it.
Speaking of Harden: remember when he used to play with OKC but he was traded because the Thunder were too cheap to pay him?
Both teams struggle defensively. You know what that means: statistics galore, plus high-scoring games.
The stakes: this could be the last ever playoff series for the Harden-Howard duo, given how bad Houston has been this year after making the conference finals last season. Also, with Durant becoming an unrestricted free agent in July, it could be his last playoff series in an Oklahoma City jersey, if by some miracle the Rockets upset them.
That’s it.
Oh wait, I almost forgot:
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4. Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis
If you want to talk about bad blood, this is the series to watch out for. The Clippers beat the Grizzlies in 7 games in 2012, and then the year after, Memphis returned the favor in 6 games. It’s always physical when both teams square off. Animosity? Certainly present. The contrast in styles between both teams is clear, but both are still very dangerous.
It’s a shame Marc Gasol (foot) won’t be available, but Zach Randolph and Conley aren’t going to let Memphis fall without a fight - figuratively and literally. The Grizzlies also have Lance Stephenson and Matt Barnes, former Clippers who probably want to show up their former team. Oh, and that Tony Allen guy is pretty fun, too. If Memphis was a DC movie, it would be the Suicide Squad.
I’m going to say no more. Just watch this:
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Are you excited yet? Because I sure as hell am.
Note: I love watching John Wall and Bradley Beal lead the Wizards, plus seeing Andre Drummond make his playoff debut under Stan Van Gundy would be incredible, although I think Chicago and Indiana present better challenges than Washington and Detroit. Out West, the absence of Chandler Parsons (knee), I believe, puts Dallas a tier below the teams its competing against for playoff spots. – Rappler.com